Will Dropping Retail Traffic Impact Physical Security / Surveillance Sales?

The surveys I cited are the perceptions of the companies that responded. Because the merchandise or tender is missing it is counted as shrink, but there is no definitive way to know how it went missing.

Some companies use their apprehensions as the basis to calculate their answers. If total shrink was $1M, and they caught $300K of employees and $200K of ORC/shoplifters they might answer 60% of their shrink was internal and 40% external.

But because they didn't catch 100% of the losses there remains a certain amount of guesswork in their estimates.

I've talked with some of the Euros retailers, and their perception is they pay their employees better so the problem is shoplifters. That said, I've also seen some of their LP programs, they are way behind the sophistication of the North American retailers. They don't use video at anywhere near the levels we do here, and what they do use is watching the sales floor for thieves rather than the POS or back doors.

As mentioned, I'm very dubious of their perception of little employee theft

Two trends are impacting LP sales in retail. First, there is a consensus among analysts that there are too many Bricks-and-Mortar stores, which means there are going to be less stores in the future, hence less LP sales. At the same time, there is strong talk about 'knowing more' and 'doing more' with the physical store. In addition to RFID for inventory and LP management, this means a push towards in-store analytics, which, in turn, will increase video sales. How will the trends 'wash' each other remains to be seen.

That said, retailers are demanding more. Now that IP cameras are becoming prevelant and server costs go down, we will see more sophisticated video analytics. So far the focus was the cashiers area, but the thinking is shifting toward customer interactions and stay time. This is not easy to do. In a way, facial recognition is easier than people counting (motion and standing behaviors), because in facial recognition we compare images to an image, and in behavior analytics the range of motions is wide, and the technology also needs to take into account changes in temprature and shadows.

My experience has been that Europe (specifically U.K.) has always been the trailblazer in developing the technology, from counting to queue management. America, on the other, is the center of roll-outs, where both technologies and concepts are tested in detail. Asia is now pushing toward cheaper products, which changes the solution mix. To me, the charm of the business is the combination of global nuances with the consistency in requirements.

Underlying all of this is a shift in the attitude toward employees, from liablities (cost and theft), to revenue generators (engagement, training, and Tender Loving Care...). Under all the hype of mobile and analytics technology, the big change in retail is in the nature of interaction between employees and customers.

Bottom line, integrators who will make the effort to learn the 'language of retail' will win big.