Though those are the same manufacturers
Right, what I was trying to say is that it's not Analog HD variants that will cause price pressure, it's that overall EVERYTHING is cheaper. Analog HD may be even cheaper than "equivalent" IP cameras, but ALL this stuff coming out China is dirt cheap, and acceptable quality.
Is that really?
Well, there's a whole larger philosophical discussion around this, but I think that even low-end techs need to have basic IP skills these days, and if the integrator somewhat standardizes on cameras and VMS things are very "scriptable" for the install. Some lesser qualified techs may not exactly understand the finer details of what they're really doing, but they can follow a set of steps and get an expected outcome. If things DON'T go as planned, yeah, the IP system is probably harder for that tech to troubleshoot in some cases.
A basic camera install then is essentially:
1) Pull some wire - more less same materials cost (are these AHD cameras powered over coax??) and same labor. Maybe slight time variance for punching down cables vs. crimping BNCs?
2) Mount/hang/wire camera - more or less the same process for each camera
Assume somewhere around 2.25 hours on average for "a camera", billed at an "average" rate of $75/hr (taking some huge interpretations of "average" here) and you've got about $168 for labor, plus some materials ($30/camera?), or right around $200/camera for labor/cable.
This means your all-in cost for a cheap AHD camera is ~$260, and your all-in cost for a cheap IP camera is ~$320, or a little less than a 25% up charge. If the cameras are all outdoors (more difficult/expensive installs) the variance might be less. If they're all indoors in a small shop attached to drop ceilings, the variance might be more.
After that part, configuring a VMS/IP system is probably more labor intensive than the relatively simple setup of an NVR, but the Razberri-style devices and similar "appliances" from some VMS companies are neutralizing a lot of that (albeit at a price premium compared to a simple DVR).
For the most part, I still think the AHD stuff is primarily limited to (or, geared to) simpler systems. Where the requirement for higher resolutions, wider variety of form factors, and advanced features are less of a selling point.
AHD then would do well in the DIY market, and the "gas station/nail salon/Donut Shop" sector. IP would do well in the "corporate" sector, large retail, etc. market. If the customer is super cost-conscious, the dealer might propose an AHD system in 2015. If the customer is performance-oriented, the dealer would propose an IP system and VMS, but will be more forced to justify the $800 fancy IP cam compared to the 3MP Hikvison dome on Amazon for $130