Who Loses The Most From This, Hikvision Or Genetec?

Who loses the most from this, Hik or Genetec?

Maybe we could start with the average cost of a Hik camera vs the average cost of a Genetec license.

I'm thinking the camera is cheaper, not sure.

So if half of the potential "Hik on Genetec" customers drop Hik because of the additional Genetec Surcharge and the other half drop Genetec, then in pure dollars Genetec comes out with a greater revenue loss.

Of course on a % revenue basis, the % Genetec loss is far greater.

Super simplistic, but certainly some deals will go to Genetec and others go to Hik.  Also, this ignore any loss of Hik goodwill or domino effect, if others follow suit.

NOTICE: This comment was moved from an existing discussion: Genetec Expels Hikvision

Original poll results:

On a direct revenue basis, even assuming the worst case for Hikvision, the revenue impact is trivial. Let's say ~$10 million worth of new Hikvision cameras are used with Genetec each year (I suspect that's high but let's use a round number), that is nothing for Hikvision as a company, it is less than 0.25% of Hikvision's 2016 revenue. It's effectively a rounding error.

And, of course, some or many Hikvision users will keep Hikvision and drop Genetec, making the actual direct impact even less.

Also, this ignore any loss of Hik goodwill or domino effect, if others follow suit.

The 'goodwill' is the dominant factor here. Our integrator surveys (more to be released in January) clearly show two major issues for Hikvision - cybersecurity and the Chinese government. Genetec's move reinforces and publicizes both.

There is indirect revenue loss - other buyers or integrators who do not use Genetec but who heard more about it via Genetec's move who choose not to use Hikvision.

There is indirect employee / operational problems. Imagine you work for the Hikvision Enterprise Solution Sales Team (ESST), Belbina's group. Having to deal with questions about why Genetec did this and how Hikvision is related to the China government and having to defend their cybersecurity is draining both time wise and emotionally. Given their low enterprise base and huge hiring in the last year, surely revenue is up but it is going to be far less than if they did not have to deal with this plus profits will be much harder since the efficiency of the group will be hindered dealing with these issues.