Initial reaction to the UK voting to leave the EU has shown some negative reactions in stocks and value of the British Pound.
How do companies doing business in the UK view this move in regards to forecasts for the remainder of 2016? Will it hurt sales, or will some of the immigration control and terrorism related concerns behind the exit contribute to more sales in security?
The uncertainty around the UK's future ability to trade freely with the EU will be worrying many UK manufacturers and exporters from every sector. The local market for the security industry is also likely to be depressed as investment and capital expenditure gets frozen - many of the the building companies have suffered significant share price drops today.
Weaker sterling makes imports more expensive, most imported products are purchased in dollars, that may be better news for UK based manufacturing (what little of it there is) but is likely to be offset by increased cost of components and the threat of a barrier/cost to EU exports.
It seems probable that the final deal in 2-3 years time will have to include a free trade agreement to prevent the UK becoming isolated and disadvantaged but since that is not known and a long way off the immediate future is unfortunately bleak.
I think security spending is bound to increase in the region due to unstable geopolitical relationships.
As a student of history, I see Brexit as a sign of storms on the horizon. The European Union project has proven a major success at its original goal: Preventing war.
Foundations first arose in the wake of WWII when Europe was still in ruins, as a way to increase ties between factions and countries who'd been murdering each other for centuries. War of the Roses and The Hundred Years War took a backseat to NATO vs Warsaw Pact.
The basic premise of the union was the more member interaction, the less they would fight. And you know what? They were right. This is the longest peaceful period in European history.
There is a lot to be said for other cultural dynamics changing in Europe, but taking a narrow view of just Brexit makes me wonder if a dissolution on a bigger scale is in the future.
IFSEC will take a huge hit.
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