Trump The Talk Of ISC East

We heard it again and again at ISC East. "Say what you will about Donald Trump, at least he'll help us compete with the Chinese."

Then, the SIA gave a briefing discussing opportunities presented by the incoming administration. Suffice to say they're bullish that the Trump years are going to be a good for the industry. They pointed to increased border security, increased infrastructure spending, increased defense spending, possible changes to NAFTA, rewriting the DIGIT Act, lowering the corporate tax rate, and acquisition reform.

And, of course, Donald Trump has promised to end the US's trade imbalance with China.

Politics aside, do you think that the Trump Administration will be good for the security industry?


apparently there is supposed to be a wall, makes no sense to have a border wall with no cameras on it. but who knows guess we will see what gets done

Yes for sure, during the Bush years I remember military spending bought me (2) Harley's and a boat!!

If we're putting one wall up, why not put up another wall on the OTHER border. Heck, double our camera sales!

Ok everybody, just back off now.

This ones mine. Arecont Project Registration:

That's amazing.

DUDE! How could you forget the part where Mexico is paying for it? Lol

Bottom right :)

That kinda contradicts the Seek Congressional Blanket P.O. thing though, doesn't it?

Nah, just a 'double dip'.

You funny guy! Anyway, I just tried calling Arecont looking for you. I might need to talk back up plans with a Trump trade war looming anyway. Care to drop me a line?

In the most extreme case scenario, I see Hikvision and Dahua losing its foothold here in the USA and a possibility of an Arecont comeback.

FLIR will be forced to drop its coaxial line, at least temporarily. They'll stay strong.

IC Realtime might be able to survive with their absolutely stupid margins. They may branch off and finally invest in their own factory.

Many of the western but still foreign manufacturers may be a toss-up due to the fact that a lot of old guard companies are now owned by Asian entities.

Axis = Canon

Bosch is probably getting going to merge with Sony.

Mobotix = Konica Minolta

Dahua and Hik will and should attempt to negotiate to build US factories and have them count as American made.

This is all dependent on what gets penalized with tariffs and for what reasons. Is it going to be targeted against Asia/China only or is this a blanket carpet bomb against everything foreign?

Can you get away with foreign ownership while "creating jobs" with a US based factory or are we going to have to go all red, white, and blue?

Suffice to say, Trump's policies were vague and completely unrefined when he uttered them so realistically, there's no telling what could happen.

This is all dependent on what gets penalized with tariffs and for what reasons. Is it going to be targeted against Asia/China only or is this a blanket carpet bomb against everything foreign?

Well, Trump has explicitly threatened China, NAFTA, and TPP. So my best guess is that European companies are safe, although it may be that Trump doesn't see Europe as a threat. I'm not a trade expert, so I don't know how right or wrong this attitude is.

TPP is dead in the water, tariffs on china is unlikely unless he wants war, and NAFTA is a treaty so he will need 67 votes in the senate to repeal it

I could see ban on specific companies though

Politics aside? How do you evade politics when the very question is about politics? LOL

I see the points above in the OP as being somewhat valid, but they will be countered with overall economic decline due to the import policies. While anti-Chinese policies may be good for non-Chinese manufacturers, it will hurt them all in some way. I don't know of many products that don't have some Chinese parts inside.

Overall, I am bearish about the economy as a whole, which leads to a decline in our industry.

Sigh as much as I disagree with you normally you are mostly correct on this one. would you like something that is not made in the US anymore? Diapers, yep Diapers are not made in the US they are all made in china now.

So tariffs on Diapers will mean all Diapers prices will skyrocket, which will make a lot of people with kids unhappy.

in a perfect world where the US hasn't moved half of the ability to manufacture the things it needs else where in the world the polices promised would the greatest things in the world for the USA. Unfortunately we have moved about half of the manufacturing for things we need to survive out of the US, So tariffs would doom us quick unless we can manufacture all the things we need to survive with out being dependent on the rest of the world

Politics aside? How do you evade politics when the very question is about politics? LOL

At ISC East, some people wanted to make sure that we didn't interpret their belief that Trump would be good for the industry as support for him personally. "I didn't vote for Trump but he's going to be good for business". That sort of thing.

At ISC East, some people wanted to make sure that we didn't interpret their belief that Trump would be good for the industry as support for him personally. "I didn't vote for Trump but he's going to be good for business".

Don't believe them; if they thought he was good for business, they voted for him.

I think he will be good for business. I did not vote for him.

Myth busted....

Yes, but were you at ISC East?

Same here, I voted for Johnson, but I think Trump will be good for business.

...products that don't have some Chinese parts inside.

Politics aside, do you think that the Trump Administration will be good for the security industry?

yes.

Politics aside, do you think that the Trump Administration will be good for the security industry?

yes, he is a tremendous destablizing force in both domestic and international matters.

Anxiety will increase spending.

Trump->Romney->Bain Capital->Uniview

So much for tariffs.

Here's an additional (and somewhat alarmist) take on the future of the surveillance industry now that Trump is the prez:

A Trump Presidency is a Godsend For The Surveillance Industry - with direct quotes from two SIA reps

What I can tell you that the business community is already reacting in a very positive way. We have seen quotes/proposals, previously on hold, being released, just in the last 10 days, as if they were waiting on the outcome of the election. Assuming this trend continues, the outlook for business growth is HUGE!

"YUGE!" there I fixed it

being released, just in the last 10 days, as if they were waiting on the outcome of the election.

#4, Any idea if they would have done the same if Clinton had won?

We have seen the same thing. We were wondering why our close rate had gone down and why we couldnt get replies from prospects. Couldnt figure out why it was taking so long to close, then BAM. November 9th, everyone woke up again.

According to the businesses we have been receiving PO's from, they are generally encouraged by the promise of a reduction in regulations, elimination and replacement of Obamacare, the prospect of lower corporate taxes. The overall belief that the US economy which as been very slow in GDP, (except for Q3) will continue to accelerate which is good for business. Businesses in large are Pro Trump and NO, they would not have been as optimistic with HC. You can Tweet me on that!

I would like to hear someone more educated than I speak specifically about the impact of tpp or lack of tpp on our industry. anyone? This might be one of the quicker things that gets implemented by this administration. might be a new thread.

Update: it's not just us.

Update: Magal S3, the Israeli company responsible for security fences on the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Egyptian borders, has seen its stock price surge since the election. Their CEO said

We believe that the U.S. government is going to increase its security budgets in the upcoming years and definitely we look forward to take part in it.

Magal, as you know, recently bought Aimetis.