HID: Mechanical Locks Dead In A Decade - Agree/Disagree?

Brian, what does a basic mechanical lock and key cost?

For that prediction to be true, the cost differential would have to get quite close.

Btw, contrast:

• Their statement "Very few businesses will use the traditional lock and key 10 years from now"
• To "Very few businesses will install new traditional lock and key 10 years from now"

I am not sure if either will be true but the former is almost certainly false because it implies that in a decade the hundreds of millions of existing locks will be replaced.

This seems like the "analog" is dead argument, only based on a technology that is hundreds of years older and 1/10th the price per unit.

When I think of "businesses", I think of all the doors inside a building that have no need for access control, plus all the smaller stores that don't need every employee to have a key. It would seem that these doors could far outweigh the commercial doors where employees have access badges.

Almost every electronic access control system I've seen also has a door with a mechanical key override. I think some places even require this by code for emergency access in case of power outage, etc.

I don't see how you could have a building that was truly "keyless" in a practical way.

Last time I talked with the Allegion A&E rep he mentioned their new NDE electronic lock sets (Wifi enabled) would run at about MSRP $600 for cylindrical. The lock also fits in a standard cutout. With a solution like that I could see locations having more access control, but to hardware every door is just unnecessary and will always be way to costly.

I think the HID prediction is a lot closer to reality then this thread gives them credit for. Granted replacing all or even most mechanical locks is marketing hyperbole. However replacing the majority of mechanical locks to facility entrances and high use locked doors is, in my most humble opinion, very likely. I believe this will happen when the cost of an electronic lock drops to about double the price of an equivalent mechanical lock. This day is not far off. A standalone electronic lock should easily fit into the $200 to $400 price range, once production and competition is ramped up. These locks would not need conduit, wires, a wireless connection, or even periodic updates from someone walking around with an update tool.

I think the future to a large percentage of this market now served by mechanical locks, that don't need the control of an access control system; will be served by locks that don't need to be online. These locking systems will carry the access rights and time schedules on the credential rather than a central database, downloaded to a lock. There will be no need to update the lock's database, as the lock will request it from the card itself though an encrypted RFID transaction.

If you are in the access control business today, be aware that your future competition may be the big box store near you. I don't want to be all doom and gloom, there will always be a need for an access control systems, but it won't look like todays systems!

The comment is silly. Access control is the slowest moving segment in our business (even slower than alarm). New locks will appear (especially with network driven features) but the mainstream mechanical locks will change very little. Change and adoption of new technologies is snail-paced in access control.

My guess? in 10 years it will look remarkably like now (which looks remarkably like 10 years ago).

Maybe it will go up and then fall?

CLEVELAND, March 16, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Sales of mechanical security products in the US are expected to rise 5.4 percent annually through 2020 to $6.1 billion. Growth will be driven by the large lock segment, which will benefit from continued gains in building construction spending.