Member Discussion

Realistic Projections For The Video Surveillance Market?

Hi All,

I know there was a recent discussion about this. I would like to get your recommendations on where I can find good market research about the topics below. I am interested in the following:

1- Current Size, projected growth in the next 5 years, etc in North America

2- IP vs Analog sales in gross sales and number of cameras. Since IP is a about 2-3 times analog, let’s say the market is split 50/50 that could mean analog is selling 2-3 times more cameras/systems than IP.

3- Number of Integrator selling IP vs Analog. Again, we can have 50/50 split on gross sales but since IP is now mainly deployed on most new large projects by mid size to large integrators, the breakdown might not be 50/50 on integrators.

4- Market size for Do-it-yourself system (Lorex,Foscam,etc). I think I am seeing more and more of these solutions deployed in small business.

John, I know you have plenty of surveys about some of this here at IPVM but I am concerned that the data might not be very accurate. I could be wrong, but I believe that most of your members might have a higher skill level than the average integrator. Also, what is the easiest way for me to serach for your surveys?

Looking forward to your feedback.

Realistic market projections depend a lot on matching your circumstances to the statistics being released.

(1) Projected growth for surveillance in North America is almost certainly under 10%. IMS recently ran a press release saying 12% but that's global and is skewed by China / developing countries.

(2) If you are looking at North America, the market is not split 50/50 in IP vs analog sales. IP is clearly significantly higher than analog.

Related, and a serious question, how would knowing how many units were being sold impact your decision making process?

(3) The number of integrator question is really fascinating. One immediate challenge you get into is who counts as an integrator? Let's you are talking about real companies with more than a few employees. It's certainly not 50/50 on sales. I think it's more like 80 / 20 in terms of sales. There's lot of integrators doing close to 0 analog sales today (outside of maintaining existing legacy systems).

(4) The market size for DIY systems is hard to estimate but here are some data points:

Those are not huge dollar numbers (Mobotix and Avigilon did ~$100 million in 2013, Axis did ~$750 million, etc.). However, given their far lower average selling price, that does indicate they are moving a lot of units.

We are doing a new survey round and one clear theme we see is that DIY solutions (whether its Costco, online kits, local tech shops, etc.) are becoming an increasing competitive problem.

Returning to your original question about North American growth. Overall, for surveillance, it is probably in the 6% to 9% range but once you factor in that a lot of sales are being diverted to the DIY channel, it's pretty clear that sales for traditional surveillance integrators, as a whole, are growing very slowly, if not flat.

Oh, here's our directory of surveys. We have another 10 coming out in the next 2 months.

"Related, and a serious question, how would knowing how many units were being sold impact your decision making process?"

Let us assume IP vs Analog 75/25 in market share. With IP being about 2-3 times higher cost, it means that still more than half of the cameras that are being installed today are still analog. To an IP camera manufacture I still have half of the market to go after, correct?

"Those are not huge dollar numbers (Mobotix and Avigilon did ~$100 million in 2013, Axis did ~$750 million, etc.). However, given their far lower average selling price, that does indicate they are moving a lot of units"

Exactly my point. That means there are still more than 1/2 of cameras that are being purchased today are analog and the run way is still lean for more IP cameras.

What about the current market size, I hear the number 20 Billion for the US, is this correct?

"To an IP camera manufacture I still have half of the market to go after, correct?"

That's a good point / question.

A big factor is: Who are these people buying analog? I find it hard to believe that literally half of all the cameras being sold in the US today are analog. Certainly, some are replacement purchases and extensions of legacy systems but who's buying analog cameras for new systems?

Certainly, there's the DIY market - people buying at Costco or getting $300 kits online. How many units is that? What percentage of all units? I am sure it's a significant number but how much exactly I don't know.

The issue, though, is that those buyers are not going to suddenly pay 3x more for IP or buy premium cameras.

To the extent that there is runway, it's for super low cost IP cameras, though I am not sure how much of that is coming at the expense of incumbent IP manufacturers vs buyers choosing analog today.

When you say $20 billion for the US, you mean just surveillance? Are you including integration or just manufacturer sales?

Good points.

1- I guess the number that I am looking for is how much is spent yearly in the US only on surveillance hardware and software (Manacture sales)?

2- Predicted growth in 2014 ? You answered that earlier with less then 10%

3- What percentage of the gross sales above is spent on small busniess ( less then 16 cameras). This survey from 2011 states 31%.

I would love to know ADI or Tri-ed percentages on this. I think they will offer the most accurate estimates since they deal with a good 80%+ of the integrators. Maybe an ex-employee might see this and post :)

Robert, thanks, good feedback.

(1) For North American surveillance manufacturer sales, the numbers I most frequently see are in the $3 to $5 billion range.

(2) Answered

(3) Be careful about gross sales here. Even if 31% of integrators deal with an average of 16 cameras or less, that does not mean 31% of gross sales goes here. More of the money will go to integrators selling 33+ cameras simply because they have more cameras per job. Also, over 8 cameras to me is no longer typically a small business because that would be overkill in a sub 1000 or even 2000 foot area.

There's a lot of challenges in estimating gross sales for small businesses, starting with what one considers small.

Your idea about ADI or Tri-Ed percentages is a good one. Whatever the answer is, it will definitely be skewed towards more of the low end. While most US integrators do buy from them, they tend to buy make big surveillance purchases through IT distributors or direct rather than ADI / Tri-Ed.

That said, we can ask around to counter people at branches and I bet they will have a feel of what they sell. Thanks again. Let me know if you have other comments or questions.

I randomly called a few distributor branches and asked them "What percentage of cameras you sell are analog vs. IP?"

Here are their answers:

  • ADI Branch 1: 85% analog, 15% IP (Color comment: Their customer base is mostly alarm guys)
  • ADI Branch 2: 50% analog, 50% IP
  • Tri-ED: 60% analog, 40% IP
  • Anixter Branch 1: 50% analog, 50% IP
  • Anixter Branch 2: 50% analog, 50% IP

Thanks Brian!

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