China Smartphone Shipments Down, Are Surveillance Cameras Next?

JH
John Honovich
•Jan 09, 2019
IPVM

One of the big recent mainstream news stories is that China smartphone shipments in 2018 fell, year over year:

China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), a research institute under the country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said shipments dropped 15.5 percent to roughly 390 million units for the year, with a 17 percent slump in December.

How likely is a similar pattern to appear for video surveillance cameras?

There are certainly differences between the two but both have benefited from a massive expansion of use, driven by falling prices (iPhones are ~$1,000 each but Chinese android phones are widely available at 80% lower price).

For example, IHS is forecasting 181 million surveillance cameras to be sold in 2019 (as discussed here). And, on the plus, China's Skynet is a big driver of camera sales. But after, now, many years of super cheap cameras, at what point is the market saturated? What is the greenfield market out there? How strong will replacement sales be?

Curious to hear thoughts on this. I've also created this poll:

JH
John Honovich
•Jan 11, 2019
IPVM

New Economist article: Worries about unemployment mount as China’s economy slows, notable quote:

Cao Yingying, a woman at a nearby recruitment centre, says they stopped hiring for Foxconn in late October because of Apple’s disappointing sales. They still have other electronics factories as clients, but they are all suffering. “Washing machines, fridges, vacuum cleaners. Everyone now has these, and they last longer,” she says. “So factories have fewer orders.” [emphasis added]

JH
John Honovich
•Jan 11, 2019
IPVM

Evidently, car sales are trending down in a big way inside China as well, so how much this is a local China problem is a question:

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Hal Bennick
•Jan 15, 2019
Trafficware, a CUBIC Company

I think the phone phenomenon is being driven more by changes in policy by US carriers.  Since the dawn of time, you were able to get a free or heavily discounted phone when you upped your contract.  Today, you pay a monthly fee for the total price of the phone. People just don't want to pay that much for a device.

We've been an iPhone family since the 3G, and we currently have four of them.  I used to buy the new "basic" iPhone every two years for about $200, and I would sell my old one on eBay for about $200.  Perfect.  Today, I just buy a "New Old Stock" iPhone on eBay when one of ours breaks or wears out.  I bought a 128GB iPhone 7 a few months ago for $280 and a 32BG iPhone 6S for $200, both with the plastic covers still on them.  I'm just not going to spend $120 a month to pay for four phones, plus my normal bill.

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